Risk and Reticence

One of my favorite topics is technology. I work everyday with technology, I read news about current discoveries, and I drool over new inventions (and some new products), and dream of the possibilities. Why? I may be a pessimist, I prefer ‘realist’, about situations and being prepared, but I am optimistic about technology and that it can improve our lives.

I was talking to a friend and neighbor the other morning. He was kind enough to give me a ride as my car is in the shop and Jessie is out working. I have been thinking about conversations in general with people and realize that almost all of the conversations fall into complaining about things that will never change incrementally, or being excited by forecasted advances in technology. And I am tired of complaining without result.

The issue came up that technology removes the need to interact on a human-to-human basis. Specifically, self-driving cars will remove the need for us to interact with friends and family that need a ride because they themselves can’t drive. Broadly: we will incur less risk, or investment in those people that need help today. I agree to some degree, but I believe we are shifting risk and have to be willing to interact with others despite the enforced interactions slowly decreasing.

Exoskeletons

My brother is managing the mechanical side of a lab developing exoskeletons to assist people in walking. This is a great technology, imagine people who have never, or no longer have the ability to walk being able to walk independently other than an assistive set of legs. There are people already benefiting from this technology. But pessimistically: what does this mean in terms of interaction? This person being assisted by technology no longer has to ask for the same assistance as they did when they were in a wheelchair. Not so terrible. Really I think that there is really no real risk, in fact it helps these people go many places that the Americans with Disabilities Act never touched before: a friend’s house, trails, and many other places. Of course there is the risk that the battery may fail, or the apparatus may malfunction, but as long as they have a reasonable way to recharge it, like a standard plug, it is several steps above a wheelchair in mobility.

In the future this technology might be expanded to be helpful to people with more widespread paralysis. More independence for basic movement might lead to more ability to socialize.

Self-Driving Cars

Delving deeper into this idea. Everyone could make use of a self-driving car, but let’s look at previous advances in technology that have led this way.

• Walking to riding
• Riding to carts/wagons
• Cars and other transportation
• Self-driving cars

Each one of these advances we could say has cut down on our self reliance to some degree. Each advance in transport has added layers of support that we need in order for it to function, but it also gives us massive freedom. In fact today’s cars allow us to escape into our own world, even while driving through the real world. Look at a traffic jam, even though there is a shared frustration, each driver has their own music, audiobook, or conversation going on.

All things happening in a car is a distraction to driving, including driving. Looking to see if a lane is clear could mean that you smash into the car in front of you. Essentially we are our own worst enemies, and as a friend mentioned last night: “We put our lives in the driver’s hands.”

By switching to self-driving cars we will become even more reliant on a piece of complex technology to transport us. That is a risk, but to see that as any worse than right now suggests that somehow today’s cars and companies are more reliable than tomorrow’s self-driving cars and producing companies. This is false. Today’s cars are easily hacked/disabled to the point that we could be left with only cars running for people that haven’t upgraded in the last 20+ years or are interested in classic cars.

So what does the convenience of not driving actually shift the risk to? I think there will be many small shifts, but I don’t think that there will be any big risk socially, physically, economically that isn’t already present, and in fact it might allow for distracting conversations to happen in a car that might otherwise cause an accident.

Really Internet?

Yep, technology has allowed more socializing, maybe. Or maybe it is just interactions. I could go into the long debate about how the internet has made people more or less social, suffice it to say that it has certainly been the main technology in promoting asynchronous communication beyond the book, and books have long been blamed for “making” people anti-social.

It is a measure of risks and benefits. In most cases, realizing the risks and countering them is enough, but there are certain technologies that end up riskier than we first thought. Being well informed is our first defense. Developing a well informed, positive, constructive outlook can help.

I do not do what I want to do

I do not do what I want to do

If you do not recognize this, it is okay, you are living life to its fullest. You can move on and ignore these thoughts. However, I do invite you to ponder:

This is part of a longer, pretty confusing, passage in the Bible written by Paul in Romans 8. Maybe it’s just because I am contrarian and like things other people have a hard time dealing with because I also enjoy Ecclesiastes. Despite all of this talk of the Bible, I think that it is extraordinarily practical, even if some claim may that it can only be understood in a religious context.

One more thing before I dive into this and its application. Many people will claim that many parts of the Bible are impractical to be applied in someone’s life outside of being a Christian. In Mere Christianity C.S. Lewis contends that we either have to take Christ as God, or a raving lunatic, never just a “good teacher.” While I agree that believing in salvation through the sacrifice of God is certainly a tall order and colors much of the rest of the book, and I hope more people would believe, but it is false to believe that there can’t be some positive understanding without being a believer. C.S. Lewis is right to say that calling Christ just a “good teacher” is impossible, but basically Christians fall into the pride trap and often look like the Pharisees in their words and actions believing that all the teachings can only be understood through relation with Christ. A humble view will show that, yes, salvation is a black and white subject, and not decided by us, but understanding specific passages can be done.

So what brought up this topic? Partly it was reading Strip or Retire post by Art of Manliness, but also having been in a discussion of this passage recently. What is better: To risk nothing by doing nothing? To risk everything doing something that the only reward is anxiety? Or to risk something or everything in order to do better?

If you read the AOM post I think you will know which one I am pushing toward, but still I am going to see if I can make sense of it.

First and foremost I must admit to being in the first camp. I don’t much like it when I think about it and often times I want to get out. But how comfortable it is to just let the status quo keep its status just where it is. But that is partly why I am writing this, to get myself toward the bank of the river Status; to think critically about subjects and expose my thoughts to a wider audience. This is risk, small but still more than I would otherwise consider normally.

What about that second camp? If we risk ourselves on things that are only going to cause anxiety, why do we do it? And does it really cause anxiety for all people?

The people who take these type of risks get an immediate rush, would anyone jump out of a plane or off a cliff to only see the view? Probably, but most people are doing it for the thrill, even with current technology the threat of death is right there. And to the skydivers, there are no personal consequences, at least insofar as they haven’t already reasoned away, who needs life insurance if you die doing what you love?

But these selfish actions, even as mundane (today, at least) as skydiving, do have consequences for other people. Skydiving is socially accepted, but there are many things that are not which people are taking risks all the time and hurting themselves and others for just an ever-diminishing rush. There are also some things that society views as not as bad as previous generations viewed it. Certainly some of these views may have been wrong, but to stir the fire: We all joke about politicians being liars, and the fact is there is no way they could ever keep all their promises, not unless they become god-like and tyrannical. But the US is currently looking at many candidates for an election that is more than a year away, and seemingly seriously considering a self-proclaimed liar.

I am sure you can attach a name to the man who has taken loans, promising to pay it back, and then those companies have gone bankrupt. Certainly unforeseen circumstances could crash a company once in a lifetime to the point that it requires bankruptcy, but when it becomes a pattern there is obviously some reasoning that allows it to happen again and again. Also the attitude is not one of contrition, but rather bombast. Just the person I want to run the country.

I do not want to move from the nothing camp into the negative side. Yes, I may get things wrong, but I want to be doing things right, for the betterment. Probably not altruistic, but certainly not selfish. And those who are coming with me need to know that there are risks, and the possibilities. But first I need to cut down on the nothing and start finding the risk that will pay dividends in the long run.

Some things that I feel I could invest my time in, either more or at all:

• People - Right now I only really invest time in one person. And even that I do not do too well.
• Constructive hobbies - lighting for a shadow box doesn’t happen without a bit of work. Also there are other projects around the house that could use my knowledge and/or quick learning to solve. There might be a bit of risk, but the reward will be a more comfortable, or usable, house.
• School - I would like to be an expert, and to have done well. I feel like I can actually put more effort into doing well. With my recent post I am considering quitting this semester, does this mean I am no longer taking a risk? Or am I increasing my risk for, hopefully, a better reward?
• Work - with my first major project taking too long in my estimation, we are switching to an agile system. I am in charge of getting a spam admin page up and going, but I am also angling to take charge of a small team to some extent. I am doing my work, but risking rebuke by trying to organize developers’ efforts.
• Also work - I had a constructive talk with two of our community team to figure out how I could get better at speaking about COS and developing so that I might be on the shortlist to go to conferences. I really need to start booking myself with local meetups in order to practice my speaking about subjects and hooking the COS pitch. I am not afraid to speak publicly, but what interests me I have found to bore other people.
• Writing, it sort of goes with the constructive hobbies. If I risk spending my time writing and delaying gratification (no one has clicked on an advertisement yet) rather than getting near-immediate gratification with games, then I could possibly become a better writer and start making money with this whole writing thing, hint, hint. But truly it is a side project.

All of these things are certainly good, but they are hindered by my outlook, I really am not great at taking risks. And reading Johnathan Mead’s blog I really can trap myself into not doing something by over-preparing, or previously visited, over-analyzing.

My biggest issue is the immediate discomfort that I believe I will face. My fight with myself every morning I intend to go running: “It’s too cold/dark, and I won’t do as well as I want.” But after every run, even though it isn’t a race, I am glad I ran. I might not be so happy that I ran too fast, or too slow, but I am glad that I got out there and did it.

Speaking of running, I signed up for a 5k. What does this do for me? It sets a goal, a date that I need to be ready for. Running is nice, a road or trail race isn’t a go/no-go decision, unless injured. Otherwise you can always run the race, maybe not as fast as you want, but I just need to show up and run, and I am a winner!

“Oh no. Everyone who runs can’t be a winner, did he just say that?” Nope, I will most certainly lose unless there is no one else in my age group, however, I gain a bunch of positives: Experience, exercise, a time to beat on my next 5k.

What it really boils down to is taking a risk, or many smaller risks to improve myself for the longer term, hopefully also looking to help others improve, through my example, encouragement, and exhortation.

Ongoing

I am sure that no one has ever questioned their chosen path. Ever, in the history of simple reasoning. On that false assumption, let me be the (very-large-number)th.

I probably just failed my class, on a midterm no less. It wasn't that I didn't know the material, rather I knew most of it, the problem was the proctoring system. I am certainly not a fan. I make one mistake, reloading the proctoring software because it took me to the wrong page, and it goes south from there. I won't say what was on the test, but by the time everything was figured out, I had 30 minutes to complete a 90 minute exam. Not a good position to be in.

I am sure I caused it, but the software did not help at all in that regard. But enough about that. I am looking at dropping the class and taking again at some other point. Life has been going a bit too quickly and I really haven't been keeping up with it like I need to, so if this pretty much makes it unlikely that I can even attain a B, then I will take it some other time.

Not that I like that path, withdrawing is one of my least favorite avenues. It makes me feel as though I am quitting and will be on my record. However, I feel that with a full time job it is much more acceptable, or at least a bit less frowned upon. Life marches on.

Open Science, so what?

In reference to my job at COS, of course people ask me what I do. That is pretty easy to answer: I make websites work better for scientists to use and keep workflow/data. Great. But the question often not asked, maybe because adults left it back in their childhood and it might be considered rude: Why?

Why did I work for telescopes? Why is this current job more than just a pass-time in order to make money to support myself and my family in my old age? Two things, one intrinsically selfish, and another less so, but not completely altruistic: I need motivation in order to do things and I can go for ages without generating any motivation myself, and science needs to be more open.

So I need a bit of motivation. Once given a bit of outside motivation I can often generate enough extra to do a pretty good job at whatever I am focused on. For example summer semester AI course was definitely a motivator, but I liked it enough that I put in the effort to get an ‘A’. I am not certain how much I will like this next course, but proving to myself that I can do A-grade work means that I can convince myself to keep up the work. I will talk more about that course soon.

Anyway, enough preamble, really why am I motivated to do the work?

It comes down to the fact that I believe that we need science. Do I believe that science can solve all of our problems? In short: no. However, it can give us explanations for many questions. Those generally lead to more, or finer focused questions. But it’s the progress that has been made previously that colors my optimism for what may yet be discovered.

The problem is that today’s professional scientist/researcher falls into a system that has the catchy phrase of “publish or perish.” Not a phrase that inspires confidence in those unable to find something publishable. And that is just it, what isn’t published? And why isn’t it published? I am not talking about pseudo-science with obvious flaws and downright false conclusions, but rather negative results.

Negative results come about when a scientist poses a hypothesis, runs experiments, and then gets results that say the hypothesis is wrong. What’s a scientist to do? There are many options, the first of which is the least insidious, but still not good: changing the hypothesis to fit the outcome. But if negative results aren’t published, how can we avoid duplication of effort? Not to say that checking results is a bad thing, in fact being able to reproduce results in another study is great.

Let’s imagine for a moment that there existed a society where parents only told their children positive outcomes, only things (true or false) that could help them. One of the first things you notice is the consistent burn scars on the hands of just about everyone that you meet. The first few people that you meet won’t talk about the scars and the way the react the question seems to be taken as a rude question.

Finally one older guy chuckles and shakes his head when you ask the question again, carefully trying to choose the right words. He replies, “We are a positive society, we don’t tell people about bad outcomes. Everyone has to discover that the stove is hot for themselves, and some are more badly burned than others.”

Or to put it into current day science culture terms: What publisher is going to publish my negative result so others can avoid doing an experiment that will also have a negative result?

Maybe other scientists would be able to move on and try a different angle, or derived questions from the negative result?

But it is more than just publishing negative results: In order for science to pull itself, and its associated parts, out of the decline in popularity it needs to have a vitality and veracity that doesn’t allow otherwise uninterested people to ignore it, or disparage science in general.

Why I like working with and for science is because there is room for improvement. It isn’t just about catering to the masses, but rather discovering things for the masses, and letting them know about discoveries in a transparent way.

There is negative science, but there is also science results that are wrong. When data is falsified or manipulated in such a way that results are completely twisted around, then this is bad science, not just negative results, but false results. If we can help weed these out by making science more reproducible, then we are well on our way to making science trustworthy again.

I am optimistic that I can help in this area by making better tools. That is what motivates me day to day.

Glamour Tug

*Note: This is a final draft by any means, just an excerpt or short story trying to get a slightly different view of my universe.

It wasn’t the most glamorous job, but she made the best of it. She applied retro thrusters, working in concert with the mono-tasked AI, coming to a relatively abrupt halt in relation to the cruiser docking at the base.

She was considered one of the best tug pilots and it showed, the controls had flipped to fine controls, but she knew exactly how much power would give them the centimeters per second relative velocity to contact the warship. What she mostly relied on the AI for was information about the other six tugs and coordinating. Most tug pilots operated the tug in a general sense, but the AI handled most of the fine details.

She blanked out, waiting for the ping that would give her the correct amount of time before all the tugs contacted. Certainly the wash from the tug engines gave the warship a bit of relative velocity, but it was generally negligible. There was no point getting frustrated with the other pilots, she had scars from fights that started from that frustration, in fact because of those fights and a single turned down promotion she was probably going to finish her career as an over-qualified tug pilot, but she would stick it out. (rank?)

The soft tone sounded and she pushed forward, contacting the ship on its tug plates at just over three cm/s. Magnetic couplers came online and fastened onto the small steel plates. Another tone sounded telling her that all the tugs were successfully attached. A tone following that told her that there was a little bit of velocity acquired. Tones couldn’t really map well to three dimensional space, but it did tell her the magnitude was well within operational parameters.

Now the part she detested, since she was enlisted and just one of seven tugs they had to be slaved for the final approach, and it was usually done by a lieutenant, sitting a ways down the dock. If she had read the assignments for the day it was a kid just out of pilot school, doing a tour of docking duty because he hadn’t quite made the grade to be assigned to dropships or fighters. Not that many had caused collisions, because the AI generally stepped in to regulate ham-handed pilots, but it rankled her that it was always the ones who hadn’t made the grade.

***

“Johnson,” Someone called her name, but it wasn’t a voice she recognized. If it had been, even an officer, she would have slowed to allow them to catch up, but otherwise continue walking to her destination. No one took it as insubordination from her, though they made sure no one else emulated her. She turned.

The young man approaching her was one of the pilots fresh from pilot school, but he didn’t have the characteristic hang-dog or scared puppy ways about him that most pilots banished to dock duty had.

“Yes sir?” She came to a stop, trying not to regard him in her usual manner, it scared most of the new pilots if they weren’t already afraid of her. She thought she also recognized a fire in his eyes that she generally only saw from ship captains. She straightened a bit.

“I was told you are the best tug pilot around, is that true?” He stopped a meter in front of her and kept his gaze level.

“Probably, sir,” she might snub some officers in subtle ways, but she never forgot ‘sir.’

“Stop being modest. I’ve looked at your AI settings, the only thing it does is coordinate and slave.” She was taken aback, when had he had time to look at her settings? He only just arrived yesterday.

“Yes, sir. I am the best tug pilot I know.” She paused, “Permission to ask a question.”

“Granted.”

“You aren’t a normal pilot fresh from school, are you?”

He smiled, “I am fresh from pilot school, but you are right, I have a mission and an advantage.” Certainly intriguing.

“May I ask what those are, sir?”

“You may, but I can only answer one: I had a very strict upbringing and my father doesn’t like that I am not on track to captain a warship of my own, but rather went for pilot school.”

It didn’t take that long for her to figure out that he must be a son of a high-ranking flag officer, and glancing at his name tag it confirmed her suspicions. He was the son of the Navy’s Joint Chief, one of the three people that ran the entire military. She nodded.

He chuckled, “Quick on your feet and understated, well Johnson, it was nice to meet you.” He held out his hand to shake. It was unusual for salutes to be thrown, except during formal dinners, commissioning ceremonies, or promotions, but it was even odder to shake hands like a civilian. She paused, but then took it and shook it. “I’ll let you know when I can answer that second question. Just know when it comes to that you will be under my command.” He let go, smiled again, and turned waving as he quickly strode away the way he came.

She stood a moment considering that very odd interaction. For all her years she couldn’t think of one time that she had shaken hands while stationed at the starbase.

She turned to continue toward the mess. Also he seemed very cheerful, not just unlike all of the bottom of the bucket pilots, but unlike anybody she interacted with at any point during her assignment.

Boredom

Training in Fusion and Sub-space Generation technologies couldn’t be more different. The fusion training was actually a degree backed by several universities for the military, and took nearly four years to complete. With that he had made Senior Warrant Officer, in charge of an eight-hour duty shift, a junior warrant officer on a short training tour, and five enlisted crewmen. With his graduation most of his family came from a few different worlds to celebrate his achievement. It was a good  five years of routine, and respect.

When he volunteered for the new top-secret power plant testing, he thought it would be along similar lines and that he could use most of his knowledge to command as effectively as he had before. But he was wrong, and very bored for it.

One of the reasons he had volunteered was because of the incentives. The largest incentive was for a post retirement rank of commander, essentially three levels of pay above his current pay rate, with a small pay boost during the first few cruises and a generous bonus at the end of the third cruise. The first thing was a three month training at the end of which nobody could know that he had completed it.

The first assignment after the crash-course was to a refitted cruiser, almost the same exact class as his two previous assignments. Upon arriving he went to the ‘aft power-module’ at least expecting to still see a back-up fusion generator taking up a tenth of the ship’s volume. The surprise at entering the formerly giant space was a shock when it suddenly ended in the back of the officer on duty, the tiny workstation, and the cube.

The cube measured one meter by one meter, massing just over two tonnes. It had four connections, the negative node, two coolant lines, and the output power. The theory behind the cube was simple: It harvested energy from subspace by using the difference in physical laws between our universe and subspace.

The way it did it was a carefully controlled bubble of subspace-time generated within the generator. Two atoms were ionized, stripping all electrons, and then shot through the bubble at converging angles. The collision released quite a bit of energy that exited the bubble. When the new atoms exited bubble they also had an energy higher than they had gone in with, and a few more translated particles. This exit was also accompanied by the reuniting the atoms with electrons, the potential energy of which was huge, but about 90% of the produced energy went to prepare the next atoms. Though only 10% efficient it was essentially free energy.

A single generator measured 1x1x10 micrometers and produced approximately 1 Watt. In the cubic meter the volume just for generators came to about 30%, the rest was cooling and fuel and exhaust handling. Theoretically this would mean that the power output could be 30 Petawatts, but with control for safety and inefficiencies the actual power output can be about 5 Terawatts.

With such power in such a small package it was a bit of a surprise during the engineering briefing that followed that day that they had four of these broom-bot sized closets carefully tucked around the ship.

His fellow Power Controller beside him chuckled. “Only twelve of us they have to replace when we go mad.” He chuckled at her joke, as close as it was to the truth, and looked around the room. A ship’s engineering complement usually had a majority of power engineering, with the lightning bolt clearly visible on both shoulders no matter what rank. But he only quickly counted about twenty people in the room with just the lightning bolt. The majority was now the lightening bolt with a wrench across it, the repair crew, maintaining the many electrical systems that made the ship run.

The briefing continued into emergency operations: Normal duty would only have one person on duty at any time, but during General Quarters a second would rush to the each power plant to be a second. But really if something went wrong, it was unlikely the second wouldn’t experience the same issues, rather it was a tradition. Even during GQ only one of the four power plants really needed to operate at increased power at any time, but during normal operations and maneuvers (including transitions to sub-space) all four would run at approximately one tenth power.

After his first shift he was missing the fusion power plants. Eight hours essentially babysitting a system that really only needed a person there to do an emergency disconnect. In fact his only real duty was reporting the current capacity to the Lieutenant who then attended meetings to tell the Captain that a certain percentage of the micro-generators were working.

It was an affront to the traditions of Engineers everywhere, he suspected that soon it wouldn’t even require an officer when the generators went into service across the Navy. A petty officer wouldn’t even deign the long hours of drudgery, and it would probably be assigned to several more E-3s that would be paid less and be assigned to different areas on a rotation. But now due to its sensitive nature it required a person with more supposed integrity, if he didn’t lose that with all of the boredom he was going to endure over the next few months.

Buyer's Remorse

To assuage his buyer’s remorse he stood in the hold of his cargo ship and looked at the lines of the craft he had purchased. It wasn’t alien in design, there being no confirmed contact with aliens that could design anything beyond rock tools, but it was a human attempt to make the craft look alien. The design really didn’t work that well, there were a many awkward intersections of otherwise smooth flowing curves. But he hadn’t bought it for the looks, he had bought it for its new power plant design.

The new power plant, supposedly technology stolen from the Terra Faction, allowed a cube less than a cubic meter to supply the twenty-five meter craft with enough power to supply a navy space cruiser, generally rated at 4 times the length and not quite 64 times the mass, with power to spare. That meant the small ship could mount engines and sub-space generators that were well over powered for a ship its size. The gravitic technologies could be strained to a point where they might theoretically give out under massive acceleration. Although it was a theoretical failure point of around 15,000 m/s2, he wasn’t going to get that close to test the theory. He had figured out that his acceleration could probably be pushed up to a point where 0.3c would likely be twenty seconds, give or take five seconds.

Usually a craft half this capable was first of all twice as massive, with about a third of the mass going toward the power plant and another third going to engines. As it was the engines still took up a third of the mass of the ship, but that was it, the cube was a tiny percentage and the rest was free space, if someone hadn’t designed the cabin space as awkwardly as they had the outside intersections of curves.

He shook his head, when he got through customs he would probably have to just build a new one, he had really bought it for the powerful new power plant. At least it wouldn’t be too much a pain to install in a new craft, a cube was a cube, not built for a specific ship like most power plants.